Conformal Prediction: The Definitive Resource

⭐ The definitive resource for conformal prediction: methods, libraries, tutorials, benchmarks, and production guides.

🔥 Updated regularly with the latest conformal prediction research (2025–2026). The canonical repository for conformal prediction, maintained by a leading researcher in the field — used by researchers, practitioners, and production teams worldwide.

Topics covered: conformal prediction · conformal inference · prediction intervals · uncertainty quantification · model calibration · distribution-free inference · selective prediction · trustworthy machine learning · LLM uncertainty · time series forecasting · anomaly detection

Conformal prediction (also called conformal inference) is a distribution-free, model-agnostic framework for quantifying predictive uncertainty. Instead of returning a single point prediction, a conformal predictor returns a prediction set (for classification) or a prediction interval (for regression) that is guaranteed to contain the true label with a user-chosen probability — for example 90% or 95% — under the mild assumption that the data are exchangeable. These guarantees hold in finite samples, for any underlying model (random forests, gradient boosting, deep neural networks, large language models), and without any distributional assumptions.

🧭 New here? Follow this path

📘 Learn from the Experts — Book & Course by Dr. Valeriy Manokhin

🎓 Applied Conformal Prediction — Live Course on Maven

A hands-on, cohort-based course taught by Dr. Valeriy Manokhin (PhD, Machine Learning; author of Practical Guide to Applied Conformal Prediction; PhD student of Prof. Vladimir Vovk — the creator of conformal prediction).

You will learn how to apply conformal prediction to regression, classification, time series, anomaly detection, and LLM uncertainty, with production-ready Python code and real datasets.

🔥 Enroll in the next cohort → 📩 Register interest for upcoming cohorts →

📚 Applied Conformal Prediction — The Book

The definitive practitioner's book on conformal prediction — from first principles to industry-grade applications, with code you can run today. Written by Dr. Valeriy Manokhin.

🚀 Applied Conformal Prediction — Pro Edition ⭐ Recommended The most comprehensive edition: extended chapters, advanced methods, and production-grade code.

📘 Applied Conformal Prediction — Standard Edition The core book covering regression, classification, time series, anomaly detection, and LLM uncertainty.

Both editions are available exclusively on Gumroad.

🌐 valeriy.ai — author's website with research, papers, and updates.

"The most comprehensive practical resource on conformal prediction currently available."

What is Conformal Prediction?

Conformal prediction wraps any predictive model and converts its outputs into statistically valid prediction sets or intervals. The recipe is simple:

1. Train any model on a training set.
2. Score a held-out calibration set with a nonconformity function (e.g. absolute residual for regression, 1 − softmax for classification).
3. At test time, output every label whose nonconformity score is no worse than the (1 − α) quantile of the calibration scores.

The resulting prediction set is guaranteed to cover the true label with probability at least 1 − α, regardless of the model or the data distribution. This makes conformal prediction one of the most practical tools for uncertainty quantification, trustworthy machine learning, selective prediction, and safe deployment of AI systems.

Quickstart

A minimal end-to-end example using crepes:

import numpy as np
from crepes import ConformalRegressor
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
from sklearn.datasets import fetch_california_housing
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

X, y = fetch_california_housing(return_X_y=True)
X_train, X_rest, y_train, y_rest = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.4, random_state=0)
X_cal,  X_test, y_cal,  y_test  = train_test_split(X_rest, y_rest, test_size=0.5, random_state=0)

model = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=200, random_state=0).fit(X_train, y_train)
residuals_cal = np.abs(y_cal - model.predict(X_cal))

cr = ConformalRegressor().fit(residuals=residuals_cal)
intervals = cr.predict(y_hat=model.predict(X_test), confidence=0.9)  # 90% intervals

Runnable notebooks live in examples/. See CONTRIBUTING.md to add resources.

About this list

This collection is curated by Dr. Valeriy Manokhin, who completed his PhD in Machine Learning under the supervision of Prof. Vladimir Vovk — the creator of conformal prediction. It is the culmination of resources gathered since 2015. Conformal prediction has gone from a niche framework to a mainstream method for uncertainty quantification, with dedicated tracks at ICML 2021 and ICML 2022, a NeurIPS 2022 keynote 'Conformal Prediction in 2022' by Prof. Emmanuel Candes, and the long-running COPA conference.

"Conformal Prediction ideas are THE answer to UQ, I think it's the best I have seen — its simple, generalisable etc." — Prof. Michael I. Jordan, ICML 2021

"The beauty of the conformal thing is how simple it is to do it and how general it is." — Prof. Larry Wasserman, Carnegie Mellon

"Conformal inference methods are becoming all the rage in academia and industry alike." — Prof. Emmanuel Candes, Stanford

The author's course 'Applied Conformal Prediction' is open for enrollment on Maven — enroll in the next cohort or register interest. The companion book 'Applied Conformal Prediction: Reliable Uncertainty Quantification for Real-World Machine Learning' is available on Gumroad.

Citation

@software{manokhin_valery_2022_6467204,
  author  = {Manokhin, Valery},
  title   = {Awesome Conformal Prediction},
  month   = apr,
  year    = 2022,
  publisher = {Zenodo},
  version = {v1.0.0},
  doi     = {10.5281/zenodo.6467204},
  url     = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6467204}
}

Licensed CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Academic work must cite.

💬 Open Questions in Conformal Prediction

These are active research and practitioner questions — contributions, discussion, and PRs welcome:

• What is the best conformal prediction library today for production use?
• Are transformers and LLMs fully compatible with conformal prediction guarantees?
• How should practitioners handle distribution shift and covariate drift in practice?
• What are the tightest known prediction intervals for deep learning models?
• How do conformal methods compare with Bayesian uncertainty quantification on modern benchmarks?

👉 Open a discussion or issue to contribute.

Table of Contents

🚀 Start Here — Learn Conformal Prediction

• Tutorials
• Courses
• Books
• Articles
• Videos and Talks
• Presentation Slides

🛠 Open-Source Libraries and Tools

• Python
• R
• Julia
• Other Languages
• AI Platforms
• Kaggle Notebooks

📚 Research: Papers and Theses

• Papers (general)
• Time Series Forecasting
• Anomaly Detection
• PhD Theses

🌍 Community, Events, and People

• Events and Workshops
• Conferences
• Researchers
• Websites
• Twitter / X

🚀 Start Here — Learn Conformal Prediction

Conformal Prediction Tutorials

1. Conformal Prediction Tutorial by Henrik Linusson (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
2. Predicting with Confidence - Henrik Boström by Henrik Boström (2016) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. Henrik Linusson: Conformal Prediction by Henrik Linusson (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
4. A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction by Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk (2008) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
5. Tutorial on Venn-ABERS prediction by Paolo Toccaceli (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
6. An Introduction to Conformal Prediction by Henrik Linusson (2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
7. Conformal prediction A Tiny Tutorial on Predicting with Confidence by Henrik Linusson and Ulf Johansson (2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
8. A Tutorial on Conformal Predictive Distributions by Paolo Toccaceli (2020) 🔥🔥🔥
9. Venn Predictors Tutorial by Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sönströd, Tuve Löfström, and Henrik Boström (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
10. Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors by Ulf Johansson (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
11. Conformal prediction A Tiny Tutorial on Predicting with Confidence by Henrik Linusson and Ulf Johansson (2014)
12. Conformal Prediction and Venn Predictors A Tutorial on Predicting with Confidence by Ulf Johansson, Henrik Linusson, Tuve Löfström, Henrik Boström, Alex Gammerman (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
13. A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (2021) Video Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥
14. Introduction to Conformal Prediction by Vineeth N Balasubramanian (Indian Institue of Technology, Hyderabad, 2015)
15. Conformal Prediction in Spark by Marco Capuccini (Uppsala University, 2017)
16. Uncertainty estimation in NLP by Tal Schuster, Adam Fisch (MIT, USC, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
17. Distribution-free inference tutorial At the IFDS 2021 Summer School Video 1 Video 2
18. Conformal Inference Tutorial by Ben Kompa (2020)
19. Uncertainty Quantification (1): Enter Conformal Predictors by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥
20. Uncertainty Quantification (2): Full Conformal Predictors by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
21. Uncertainty Quantification (3): From Full to Split Conformal Methods by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
22. Conformal Prediction in Genomics by BiolApps (2023)
23. Conformal Prediction: A Visual Introduction in VISxAI by Mihir Agarwal, Lalit Chandra Routhu, Zeel B Patel and Nipun Batra (IIT Gandhinagar, IIT Patna, 2023)
24. Conformal Predictions from Scratch in Numpy by Jones Wacker (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
25. A Tutorial on Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification Using Conformal Prediction (psychology) by Tim Kaiser and Philipp Herzog (Freie Universität Berlin, RPTU University Kaiserslautern-Landau, Germany, 2025).

Conformal Prediction Courses

1. Applied Conformal Prediction course starts in May 2024! 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
2. Uncertain: Modern topics in uncertainty estimation YouTube Course notes by Aaron Roth (University of Pennsylvania, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. Topics in Modern Statistical Learning by Edgar Dobriban (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
4. Theory of Statistics Stanford Statistics course by Prof Emmanuel Candes (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
5. 36-708 Statistical Methods for Machine Learning Carnegie-Mellon course by Prof Larry Wasserman (2022)
6. Course on Conformal Prediction by Christoph Molnar (2022)
7. Conformal Prediction - Advanced Topics in Statistical Learning, Spring 2023 by Ryan Tibshirani (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
8. Conformal Methods for Efficient and Reliable Deep Learning by Adam, Fisch (MIT, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Books on Conformal Prediction

1. Applied Conformal Prediction — Pro Edition by Dr. Valeriy Manokhin ⭐ Recommended — the most comprehensive edition with extended chapters, advanced methods, and production-grade code. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
2. Applied Conformal Prediction — Standard Edition by Dr. Valeriy Manokhin — the core book covering regression, classification, time series, anomaly detection, and LLM uncertainty. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. Algorithmic Learning in a Random World by Vladimir Vovk, Alex Gammerman, and Glenn Shafer (2022, Second edition). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Great theory-based book, very math heavy, no applications, no code.
4. Conformal Prediction for Reliable Machine Learning by Vineeth Balasubramanian, Shen-Shyang Ho, Vladimir Vovk (2014). Older book, largely out of date, no code.

Articles on Conformal Prediction

1. Measuring Models' Uncertainty: Conformal Prediction by Leo Dreyfus-Schmidt (Dataiku, 2020). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
2. Conformal Prediction for Neural Regression Model by Pranab Ghosh (2021). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. How to Handle Uncertainty in Forecasts by Michael Berk (2021)
4. How to Add Uncertainty Estimation to your Models with Conformal Prediction by Zachary Warnes (2021)
5. nonconformist: An easy way to estimate prediction intervals by Maria Jesus Ugarte (2021).
6. Detecting Weird Data: Conformal Anomaly Detection by Matthew Burruss (2020).
7. How to Predict Risk-Proportional Intervals with Conformal Quantile Regression by Samuele Mazzanti (2022). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
8. Stanford statisticians and Washington Post data scientists build more honest prediction models Stanford (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
9. How to Detect Anomalies — state-of-the-art methods using Conformal Prediction by Valery Manokhin (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
10. How to calibrate your classifier in an intelligent way by Valery Manokhin (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
11. How to predict full probability distribution using machine learning Conformal Predictive Distributions by Valery Manokhin (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
12. How to predict quantiles in a more intelligent way (or ‘Bye-bye quantile regression, hello Conformal Quantile Regression by Valery Manokhin (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
13. Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part I - Introduction by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
14. How to Conformalize a Deep Image Classifier by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
15. Time Series Forecasting with Conformal Prediction Intervals: Scikit-Learn is All you Need by Marco Cerliani (2022)
16. Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part II - How to conformalize a deep image classifier by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
17. Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part III - Prediction intervals for any regression model by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
18. Probabilistic Forecasting with Conformal Prediction and NeuralProphet by Valery Manokhin (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
19. Time Series Forecasting with Conformal Prediction Intervals: Scikit-Learn is All you Need by Marco Cerliani (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
20. TQA: Creating Valid Prediction Intervals for Cross-sectional Time Series Regression by Zhen Lin (UIUC, NeurIPS’22 paper) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
21. Conformal Prediction: A Critic to Predictive Models (2023)
22. Multi-horizon Probabilistic Forecasting with Conformal Prediction and NeuralProphet by Valery Manokhin TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
23. Putting clear bounds on uncertainty (MIT, 2023)
24. Conformal prediction theory explained by Artem Ryasik (2023)
25. Easy Distribution-Free Conformal Intervals for Time Series by Michael Keith (2023)
26. Another (Conformal) Way to Predict Probability Distributions by Harrison Hoffman (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
27. [How to use full (transductive) Conformal Prediction])(https://valeman.medium.com/how-to-use-full-transductive-conformal-prediction-7ed54dc6b72b) by Valery Manokhin (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
28. Conformal Prediction for Regression (using KNIME) by Artem Ryasik (2023)
29. Dynamic Conformal Intervals for any Time Series Model by Michael Keith (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
30. Hitting Time Forecasting: The Other Way for Time Series Probabilistic Forecasting by Marco Cerliani (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
31. Stanford statisticians and Washington Post data scientists build more honest prediction models Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
32. Jackknife+ — a Swiss knife of Conformal Prediction for regression by Valeriy Manokhin (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
33. Clinical AI tools must convey predictive uncertainty for each individual patient (2023)🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
34. How to use Conformal Prediction by Yannick Kälber (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
35. Model Diagnostics: Prediction Uncertainty by PiML team, Wells Fargo (2023).
36. Make any predictor uncertainty-aware via conformal prediction by Lorenzo Maggi (2023)
37. Conformal predictive systems - A hands-on codeless example with KNIME by Artem Ryasik (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
38. Conformal prediction for classification - A hands-on codeless example with KNIME by Artem Ryasik (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
39. Conformalized quantile regression by Lorenzo Maggi (2024)
40. Leveraging conformal prediction in Python to accelerate the renewable energy transition by Inge van den Ende (2024)
41. Fifty (four, actually) shades of conformal prediction by Lorenzo Maggi (2024)
42. Use case adapted prediction intervals by means of conformal predictions and a custom non conformity score by Arnaud Capitaine (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
43. Prediction Intervals using Conformalized Quantile Regression by Vincent Wauters (2024).
44. Conformalized Quantile Regression for Time Series Probabilistic Forecasting by Chris Kuo (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
45. Uncertainty Quantification and Why You Should Care by Jonte Dancker (2024)
46. Probabilistic forecasting I: Temperature by Stephane Degeye (2024)
47. Predict CO2 emissions by vehicles with Conformal Prediction by Claudio Giorgio Giancaterino (2024)
48. Exploring Adaptive and Weighted Conformal Prediction Methods in the Presence of Covariate Shift by Peter Tettey Yamak (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
49. Embracing Uncertainty with Conformal Prediction by Robbert van Kortenhof (2024)
50. Tidymodels and conformal prediction by Prasanna Bhogale (2024)
51. Basics of conformal prediction in time series data by Prasanna Bhogale (2024)
52. Leveraging conformal prediction in Python to accelerate the renewable energy transition by Inge van den Ende (2025)

Conformal Prediction Videos and Talks

1. Treatment of Uncertainty in the Foundations of Probability by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017)
2. Large-Scale Probabilistic Prediction With and Without Validity Guarantees by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, NeurIPS 2015) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. Conformal testing in a binary model situation by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
4. Protected probabilistic classification by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
5. Retrain or not retrain: conformal test martingales for change-point detection by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
6. A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction by Anastasios Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (Berkeley, ICML 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
7. Steps Toward Trustworthy Machine Learning by Tom Dietterich (2021)
8. A Tutorial on Conformal Predictive Distributions by Paolo Toccaceli (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
9. Conformal Prediction Tutorial by Henrik Linusson (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
10. Henrik Linusson: Conformal Prediction by Henrik Linusson (2020)
11. Predicting with Confidence - Henrik Boström by Henrik Boström (2016)
12. How to increase certainty in predictive modeling by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
13. Recent Progress in Predictive Inference by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
14. Some recent progress in predictive inference" (Stanford) @ MAD+ by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020)
15. Conformal Prediction in 2020 by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
16. Assumption-free prediction intervals for black-box regression algorithms by Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
17. Maria Navarro: Quantifying uncertainty in Machine Learning predictions | PyData London 2019 by Maria Navarro (2019)
18. Conformal Prediction: Enhanced Method for Understanding the Prediction Quality by Artem Ryasik and Greg Landrum
19. Venn Predictors Tutorial by Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sönströd, Tuwe Löfström, and Henrik Boström (2021)
20. Mondrian conformal predictive distributions by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson, and Tuwe Löfström (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
21. Calibrating Multi-Class Models by Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström, and Henrik Boström (2021)
22. Conformal testing in a binary model situation by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
23. Conformal prediction in Orange by Tomaž Hočevar and Blaž Zupan (2021)
24. Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets by Anastasios Angelopoulos Berkeley, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
25. Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Calibration by Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
26. Reliable Diagnostics by Conformal Predictors by Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2015)
27. Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Time-to-event Outcomes by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
28. Algo Hour – Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effect by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
29. Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment effects(Stanford) by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
30. Approximation to object conditional validity with inductive conformal predictors by Anthony Bellotti (University of Nottingham Ningbo, China, 2021)
31. Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors by Ulf Johansson (Jönköping University, Sweden, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
32. Transformer-based conformal predictors for paraphrase detection by Patrizio Giavannotti and Prof. Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
33. Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2020)
34. Model-Free Predictive Inference by Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
35. Shapley-value based inductive conformal prediction by William Lopez Jaramillo (2021)
36. Conformal Training: Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers | DeepMind by David Stutz (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
37. Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets by Anastasios Angelopoulos (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
38. Assumption-Free, High-Dimensional Inference by Larry Wasserman (2016)
39. Neural Predictive Monitoring under Partial Observability by Francesca Cairolli (2021)
40. Conformalized Kernel Ridge Regression and Its Efficiency by Evgeny Burnaev (Skolkovo, Russia, 2015)
41. Fast conformal classification using influence functions by Giovanni Cherubin (Alan Turing Institute, UK, 2021)
42. Valid inferential models and conformal prediction by Ryan Martin (North Carolina State University, USA, 2021)
43. Mondrian conformal predictive distributions by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson and Tuwe Löfström (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
44. Evaluation of updating strategies for conformal predictive systems in the presence of extreme events by Hugo Werner, Lars Carlsson, Ernst Ahlberg and and Henrik Boström (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, 2021)
45. Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors by Ulf Johansson (Jönköping University, Sweden, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
46. Class-wise confidence for debt prediction in real estate management by Soundouss Messoudi (2021)
47. How Nonconformity Functions and Difficulty of Datasets Impact the Efficiency of Conformal Classifiers by Marharyta Aleksandrova (2021)
48. Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methods by Chirag Gupta (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
49. Panel with Michael I. Jordan, Vladimir Vovk, and Larry Wasserman, moderated by Aaditya Ramdas by Vladimir Vovk, Larry Wasserman, Michael I. Jordan, Aaditya Ramdas, ICML 2021 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
50. Black-box uncertainty - Anastasios Angelopoulos by Anastasios Angelopoulos (Berkeley, USA, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
51. P.C. Mahalanobis Memorial Lectures 2020-21 by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
52. Rahul Vishwakarma: New Perspective on Machine Learning Predictions Under Uncertainty | SNIA Storage Developer Conference, Santa Clara 2019 by Rahul Vishwakarma (2019)
53. Fast conformal classification using influence functions by Umang Bhatt, Adrian Weller and Giovanni Cherubin (Cambridge / Alan Turinig Institute, 2021).
54. Recent progress in predictive inference by Emmanuel Candes, Stanford University (2022)
55. Conformalized Survival Analysis with Adaptive Cutoffs by Rina Foygel Barber, Zhimei Ren, Yu Gui and Rohan Hore, University of Chicago (2022)
56. Calibrating probabilistic hierarchical forecasts with conformal predictions by Daan Ferdinandusse (University of Amsterdam, 2022)
57. Michael I. Jordan on Conformal Prediction by Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2022)
58. Distribution-free Prediction: Exchangeability and Beyond by Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2022)
59. Purdue Statistics Theme Seminar, Conformal Prediction in 2022 by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2022)
60. WILL MY ROBOT ACHIEVE MY GOALS? PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY THAT AN MDP POLICY REACHES A USER-SPECIFIED BEHAVIOR TARGET by Alexander Guyer and Thomas G. Dietterich (University of Oregon, 2022)
61. Robust and Equitable Uncertainty Estimation by Aaron Roth(2022)
62. Conformal prediction under feedback covariate shift for biomolecular design by Clara Wong-Fannjiang (Berkeley, 2022)
63. Conformal prediction in 2022 invited talk by Emmanuel Candes at NeurIPS2022 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
64. Broadening the Scope of Conformal Inference by Michael I. Jordan (University of Berkeley, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
65. Paper Reading Group - Fortuna, a Library for Uncertainty Quantification
66. CLIMB Evergreen talk with Emmanuel Candès: Conformal Inference when Data is not Exchangeable TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
67. Algo Hour – Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects | Lihua Lei
68. 'MoroccoAI webinar - Dr. Soundouss Messoudi - 'Confidence learning using conformal prediction'
69. Emmanuel Candes - A Taste of Conformal Prediction by Emmanuel Candes (2023)
70. Foundations of Conformal Prediction - Full Conformal Predictors by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
71. Max Mergenthaler and Fede Garza - Quantifying Uncertainty in Time Series Forecasting by Max Mergenthaler and Fede Garza (Nixtla, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
72. Uncertainty Quantification with the Fortuna library by Gianluca Detommaso (AWS) by Gianluca Detommaso (Amazon, 2023)
73. Quantifying Uncertainty in Time Series Forecasting by Max Mergenthaler and Fede Garza (Nixtla, 2023)
74. NISS/Merck Meetup on Conformal Inference: Advancing the Boundaries of Machine Learning 4.19.2023 (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
75. Max Kuhn - The Post-Modeling Model to Fix the Model by Max Kuhn (2023)🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
76. ISDFS Talk: Robots that ask for help: Conformal Prediction for LLM Planners by Anirudha Majumdar (Princeton/DeepMind) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥(2023)
77. Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Planners by Allen Z Ren (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
78. Three Easy Steps to Understand Conformal Prediction (CP), Conformity Score, Python Implementation by (Dr. Data Science 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
79. Rising Stars #8: Clara Wong-Fannjiang (Genentech) - Prediction-Powered Inference
80. Rising Stars #10 - Special Series on Conformal Prediction: Isaac Gibbs (Stanford University) Conformal Inference with Conditional Guarantees
81. Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Modern Hopfield Networks by Andreas Auer TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
82. Introducing Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference (SPCI) by Chen Xu (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
83. Conformal Prediction Intervals: Empowering Executives for Informed Decision by Matthew Kolakowski (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
84. Conformal Inference with Tidymodels - posit::conf(2023) by Max Kuhn (2023)
85. ACon^2: Adaptive Conformal Consensus for Provable Blockchain Oracles by Sangdon Park (2023)
86. Leveraging conformal prediction for calibrated probabilistic time series forecast by Inge van den Ende (Dexter Energy, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
87. Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networks by Kexin Huang (Stanford, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
88. Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-values by Ying Jin (Stanford, 2023)
89. Trustworthy Retrieval Augmented Chatbots Utilizing Conformal Predictors by Shuo Li (UPenn, 2023).
90. An introduction to conformal prediction - PyLadies Amsterdam by Inge van den Ende (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥code
91. Anushri Dixit - Planning with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Safety-Critical Tasks (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
92. Analítica acelerada con Shapelets y conformal prediction, ~48 mins onwards by Carl McBride Ellis (2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
93. Conformal Quantile Estimation in Economics by Martin Fankhauser (Bocconi, 2024)
94. Big Data: 4th lecture (uncertainty in learning, big data for NLP) by Prof. Patrick Glauner (2024)
95. Unveiling Precision: A Novel ML Framework for Accurate Probability Estimates by Abel and Edgar, not CP per se, showing the critical importance of calibration in finance (2024)
96. Autonomy Talks - Somil Bansal: Safety Assurances for Learning-Enabled Autonomous Systems by Somil Bansal (USC, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
97. Interview with Vladimir Vovk on Conformal Inference (2024)
98. Error Embraced: Making Trustworthy Scientific Decisions with Imperfect Predictions by Clara Wong-fannjiang (Genentech) (2024)
99. Conformalized Interval Arithmetic with Symmetric Calibration by Rui Luo, Zhixin Zhou (City University of Hong Kong, 2024)
100. Robust Yet Efficient Conformal Prediction Sets by Soroush H. Zargarbash (2024)
101. Applications of Conformal Prediction in Medicine | CGSI 2024 by Ahmed Alaa (2024)
102. Mojtaba Farmanbar - Uncertainty quantification: How much can you trust your machine learning model? by Mojtaba Farmanbar (2024)
103. Understanding, Generating, and Evaluating Prediction Intervals - posit conf 2024 by Bryan Shalloway (2024)
104. Install TorchCP Locally - Python Toolbox for Conformal Prediction on Deep Learning Models by Fahd Mirza (2024)
105. Conformal Prediction: uncertainty quantification to humanise models by Vincenzo Ventriglia (2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Conformal Prediction Presentation Slides

1. Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction, Seattle Artificial Intelligence Workshops Meetup by Valery Manokhin, 2023 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
2. Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction by Valery Manokhin, 2022 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. Adaptive Conformal Anomaly Detection for Time-series by Evgeny Burnaev, Alexander Bernstein, Vlad Ishimtsev and Ivan Nazarov (Skoltech, Moscow, Russia, 2017)
4. Nonparametric predictive distributions based on conformal prediction by Vladimir Vovk, Jieli Shen, Valery Manokhin, Min-ge Xie, Ilia Nouretdinov and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, University of London Rutgers University, 2017)
5. What Can Conformal Inference Offer to Statistics? by Lihua Lei, Stanford University
6. Conformal Regressors and Predictive Systems – a Gentle Introduction by Henrik Bostroem (KTH, Sweden, 2022)
7. Applications of Conformal Predictors by Ernst Ahlberg and Lars Carlsson (Stena Line, 2022)
8. crepes: a Python Package for Conformal Regressors and Predictive Systems by Henrik Bostroem (KTH, Sweden, 2022)
9. Assessing Explanation Quality by Venn Prediction by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Boström and Ulf Johansson (2022)
10. Well-Calibrated Rule Extractors by Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström, Niclas Ståhl (2022)
11. [Calibration of Natural Language Understanding Models with Venn-ABERS Predictors](Calibration of Natural Language Understanding Models with Venn-ABERS Predictors](https://copa-conference.com/presentations/patrizio.pdf) by Patrizio Giovannotti (2022)
12. Reinforcement Learning Prediction Intervals with Guaranteed Fidelity by Thomas Dietterich (University of Oregon, 2022)
13. Conformal Prediction beyond exchangeability by Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
14. Split conformal prediction for dependant data by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos and João Vitor Romano (2022)
15. Conformal prediction of small-molecule drug resistance in cancer cell lines by Saiveth Hernandez-Hernandez, Sachin Vishwakarma and Pedro Ballester
16. Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
17. Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting by Sophia Sun, Rose Yu (University of California, San Diego, 2022)
18. Uncertainty estimation in NLP by Tal Schuster, Adam Fisch (MIT, 2022)
19. Conformal Prediction: an Introduction by Leo Andeol (2022)
20. EnbPI poster by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (2021)
21. Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction by Valery Manokhin (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
22. Conformal Inference with Tidymodels by Max Kuhn (posit conference 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
23. Graceful handling of large imbalanced datasets using Conformal Prediction by Ulf Norinder and Fredrik Svensson 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
24. Conformalized Quantile Regression by Yaniv Romano, Evan Patterson, Emmanuel J. Candès (Stanford, 2019)
25. Leveraging Conformal Prediction for Calibrated Probabilistic Time Series Forecasts to Accelerate the Renewable Energy Transition by Inge van den Ende (Dexter Energy, 2023). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
26. Application of Conformal Inference in High Energy Physics by Jiri Franc (CTU Prague,Czech Republic)

🛠 Open-Source Libraries and Tools

Conformal Prediction Libraries in Python

1. TorchCP - A library for conformal prediction 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
2. Python implementation of binary and multi-class Venn-ABERS calibration by Ivan Petej (2023) [Paper] 🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. Conformal Tights - A scikit-learn meta-estimator that adds conformal prediction of coherent quantiles and intervals to any scikit-learn regressor by Laurent Sorber (Radix AI) (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
4. Puncc (Predictive uncertainty calibration and conformalization) paper slides 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
5. ConformaSight Global Explainer Package 📦 by Fatıma Rabia Yapıcıoğlu (2025)
6. unquad - Conformal Anomaly Detection 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
7. Puncc (Predictive uncertainty calibration and conformalization) paper slides 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
8. Nixtla mlforecast TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
9. Nixtla statsforecast TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
10. Conformal Impact by Tyler Blume (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 10.Nonconformist by Henrik Linusson (2015) 🚨 The library does not seem to be actively maintained
11. Venn-ABERS Predictor by Paolo Toccaceli (2019) Paper 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
12. Conformalized Quantile Regression by Yaniv Romano (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
13. Orange3 Conformal PredictionMulti-class-probabilistic-classification using Venn-ABERS (Conformal) prediction by Valery Manokhin (Royal Holloway, 2022)
14. Copula Conformal Multi Target Regression by Soundouss Messoudi (2021)
15. Conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection in time-series data (KNN-CAD) by Evgeny Burnaev, Vladislav Ishimtsev (2016). Top #3 winning solution in Numenta competition 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
16. Conformal time-series forecasting by Kamile ̇ Stankeviciute (Cambridge, NeurIPS 2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
17. EnbPI by Chen Xu (2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Paper
18. Conformal learning from scratch by Marharyta Aleksandrova (2021)
19. Ensemble Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Vilde Jensen, Filippo Maria Bianchi and Stian Norman Anfinsen (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
20. Conformalized Online Learning: Online Calibration Without a Holdout Set by Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates and Yaniv Romano (2022). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
21. PySloth - Python package for Probabilistic Prediction by Valery Manokhin 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥
22. Conformal Prediction in KNIME by Tuwe Löfström and Redfield AB (2022)
23. Nonconformist by Henrik Linusson (2015) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
24. SKTime by Franz Kiraly (2022)
25. NeuralProphet (2022) 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
26. River 2022
27. TorchUQ (2022)
28. https://github.com/mikekeith52/scalecast TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
29. plot_utils - Plotting library for conformal prediction metrics, intended to facilitate fast testing in e.g. notebooks 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
30. calibrated-explanations - Calibrated Explanations for Machine Learning Models using Venn-Abers and Conformal Predictive Systems by Helena Löfström (2023)
31. Conformers - Unofficial Conformal Language Modelling library 🚀🚀🚀🚀
32. Conformal Predictions from Scratch in Numpy by Jones Wacker (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
33. Conformal Prediction for Digital Soil Mapping by Nafiseh Kakhani (2023)
34. conformal-prediction-jan2024 - PyLadies Amsterdam by Inge van den Ende (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
35. MFLES - Gradient Boosted Decomposition for time series forecasting by Tyler Blume (2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
36. confopt - A Library for Conformal Hyperparameter Tuning by Ricardo Doyle (2024) paper 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
37. [crepes-weighted Extension of crepes package, to enable weighted conformal prediction and conformal predictive systems that can handle covariate shifts](https://github.com/predict-idlab/crepes-weighted 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
38. pearsonify - Lightweight Python package for generating classification intervals in binary classification tasks using Pearson residuals and conformal prediction (2025)
39. HyperConformal: Conformal Prediction for Hyperdimensional Computing 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (2025)
40. (F)FCP : Predictive Inference with (Fast) Feature Conformal Prediction 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (2026)

Conformal Prediction Libraries in R

1. pintervals - Model agnostic prediction intervals paper by David Randahl, Anders Hjort, Jonathan P. Williams (2026) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
2. Conformal Prediction ih tidymodels by Max Kuhn (Posit/RStudio, 2023) video 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. Modeltime (2023) by Matt Dancho (Business Science, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
4. Conformal prediction for 80+ classes of R models with the marginaleffects package by Vincent Arel-Bundock (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
5. conformalForecast TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (2024)
6. AdaptiveConformal (2023) paper 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
7. Conformal Inference R Project maintained by Ryan Tibshirani (2016) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
8. Prediction Bands by Rafael Izbicki and Benjamin LeRoy (2019)
9. Conformal: an R package to calculate prediction errors in the conformal prediction framework by Isidro Cortes, 2019
10. Online Time Series Anomaly Detectors by Alaine Iturria, 2021 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
11. piRF - Prediction Intervals for Random Forests by Chancellor Johnstone and Haozhe Zhang (2019)
12. conformalClassification: Transductive and Inductive Conformal Predictions for Classification Problems by Niharika Gauraha and Ola Spjuth (2019)
13. R Package for Spatial Conformal Prediction
14. Conformal: an R package to calculate prediction errors in the conformal prediction framework by Isidro Cortes, 2019
15. cfsurvival - An R package that implements the conformalized survival analysis methodology Paper
16. ClusTorus: An R Package for Prediction and Clustering on the Torus by Conformal Prediction by Seungki Hong and Sungkyu Jung (2022)
17. conformal glm - conformal prediction for generalized linear regression models by Daniel Eck (2019)
18. caretForecast - Conformal Time Series Forecasting Using State of Art Machine Learning Algorithms
19. Localized Conformal Prediction - LCP
20. conformalbayes - Jackknife(+) Predictive Intervals for Bayesian Models (2022)
21. conformal.fd Conformal inference prediction regions for Multiple Functional response regression (2021)
22. cRepes-R, R implementation of Python crepes package - Conformal prediction for regression, classification, and predictive systems

Conformal Prediction Libraries in Julia

1. ConformalPrediction.jl by Patrick Altmeyer (2022) Article - Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part I - Introduction Article - Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part II - How to conformalize a deep image classifier Article - Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part III - Prediction intervals for any regression model
2. RandomForest by Henrik Boström (2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. PostForecasts.jl by Arkadiusz Lipiecki and Rafal Weron (2025) paper paper

Conformal Prediction in Other Languages

1. LibCP -- A Library for Conformal Prediction 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
2. An Implementation of Venn-ABERS predictor 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. LibVM -- A Library for Venn Machine
4. Scala-CP by Marco Capuccini (2017)' 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (see tutorial section 'Conformal Prediction in Spark')

AI Platforms Using Conformal Prediction

1. Conformal Prediction in Knime Presentation 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
2. Data Robot - Prediction Intervals via Conformal Inference
3. AWS Fortuna by Amazon, (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
4. Microsoft Azure

Conformal Prediction on Kaggle

1. Kaggle Notebook showcasing Conformal Predictive Distributions on Playground Series Season 3, Episode 1 (California Housing data) competition by Valeriy Manokhin (2022)
2. Kaggle Notebook showcasing Venn-ABERs Conformal Prediction on Playground Series Season 3, Episode 2 (Stroke prediction) competition by Valeriy Manokhin (2022)
3. Classifier calibration using Venn-ABERS by Carl McBride Ellis (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
4. CPB: The Crucial Calibration Set by L. Elaine Dazzio (2025)
5. Simplest Conformal Prediction Example by L. Elaine Dazzio (2025)

📚 Research: Papers and Theses

Conformal Prediction Papers

1. Classifier Calibration at Scale: An Empirical Study of Model-Agnostic Post-Hoc Methods by Valeriy Manokhin and Daniel Grønhaug (2026) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
2. The Manokhin Probability Matrix: A Diagnostic Framework for Classifier Probability Quality by Valeriy Manokhin (2026) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
3. A Review and Comparative Analysis of Univariate Conformal Regression Methods by Jie Bao, Nicolò Colombo, Valeriy Manokhin, Suqun Cao, Rui Luo (COPA 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
4. Cross-conformal predictive distributions by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valeriy Manokhin and Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2018) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
5. Nonparametric predictive distributions based on conformal prediction by Vladimir Vovk, Jieli Shen, Valeriy Manokhin and Min-ge Xie (Royal Holloway, UK / Rutgers, USA, 2018) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
6. Conformal predictive distributions with kernels by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valeriy Manokhin, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
7. Multi-class probabilistic classification using inductive and cross Venn–Abers predictors by Valeriy Manokhin (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
8. Computationally efficient versions of conformal predictive distributions by Vladimir Vovk, Ivan Petej, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valeriy Manokhin, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
9. Introducing Conformal Prediction in Predictive Modeling. A Transparent and Flexible Alternative to Applicability Domain Determination by Ulf Norinder, Lars Carlsson, Scott Boyer, and Martin Eklund (2014)
10. Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Jitendra Malik, & Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
11. Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift by Ryan Tibshirani, Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel Candes, Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, Stanford, Chicago, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
12. Regression Conformal Prediction with Nearest Neighbours by Harris Papadopoulos, Vladimir Vovk and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
13. Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methods by Chirag Gupta, Arun Kuchibhotla and Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
14. Criteria of Efficiency for Conformal Prediction by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valentina Fedorova, Ivan Petej, and Alex Gammerman ((Royal Holloway, UK, 2016)
15. Conformal Prediction for Simulation Models by Benjamin LeRoy and Chad Schafer (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
16. Distribution-free, risk-controlling prediction sets Stephen Bates, Anastasios Angelopoulos, Lihua Lei, Jitendra Malik and Michael I Jordan (Berkeley, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
17. Conditional calibration for false discovery rate control under dependence by William Fithian and Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
18. Regression conformal prediction with random forests by Ulf Johansson, Henrik Boström, Tuve Löfström and Henrik Linusson (2014)
19. A conformal prediction approach to explore functional data by Jing Lei, Alessandro Rinaldo, Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon, 2013)
20. An electronic nose-based assistive diagnostic prototype for lung cancer detection with conformal prediction by Xianghao Zhana,c, Zhan Wanga, Meng Yangb, Zhiyuan Luod, You Wanga, Guang Li (2020)
21. Predicting the Rate of Skin Penetration Using an Aggregated Conformal Prediction Framework by Martin Lindh, A. Karlén, Ulf Norinder (2017)
22. The application of conformal prediction to the drug discovery process by Martin Eklund, Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer & Lars Carlsson (2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
23. Anomaly Detection of Trajectories with Kernel Density Estimation by Conformal Prediction by James Smith, Ilia Nouretdinov, Rachel Craddock, Charles Offer, and Alexander Gammerman (2009)
24. Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets by Christopher Kath, Florian Ziel (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
25. The application of conformal prediction to the drug discovery process by Martin Eklund, Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer & Lars Carlsson (2013)
26. Anomaly Detection of Trajectories with Kernel Density Estimation by Conformal Prediction by James Smith, Ilia Nouretdinov, Rachel Craddock, Charles Offer, Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014)
27. Exchangeability, Conformal Prediction, and Rank Tests by Arun Kuchibhotla (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
28. Conformal prediction with localization by Leying Guan (Yale, 2020)
29. Predicting skin sensitizers with confidence - Using conformal prediction to determine applicability domain of GARD by Andy Forreryd, Ulf Norinder, Tim Lindberg, Malin Lindstedt (2018)
30. Binary classification of imbalanced datasets using conformal prediction by Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer (2017)
31. Discretized conformal prediction for efficient distribution-free inference by Wenyu Chen, Kelli-Jean Chun, and Rina Foygel Barber (2017)
32. Validity, consonant plausibility measures, and conformal prediction by Leonardo Cella. and Ryan Martin (2021)
33. Conformal Prediction Classification of a Large Data Set of Environmental Chemicals from ToxCast and Tox21 Estrogen Receptor Assays by Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer (2016)
34. Conformal prediction to define applicability domain – A case study on predicting ER and AR binding by U. Norinder, A. Rybacka, P.Andersson (2016)
35. Conformal prediction of biological activity of chemical compounds by Paolo Toccaceli, Ilia Nouretdinov, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
36. Introducing conformal prediction in predictive modeling for regulatory purposes. A transparent and flexible alternative to applicability domain determination by Ulf Norinder, Lars Carlsson, Scott Boyer, Martin Eklund (2015)
37. Aggregated Conformal Prediction by Lars CarlssonMartin EklundUlf Norinder (2014)
38. Interpretation of Conformal Prediction Classification Models by Ernst Ahlberg, Ola Spjuth, Catrin Hasselgren, Lars Carlsson (2015)
39. Cross-Conformal Prediction with Ridge Regression by Harris Papadopoulos (2015)
40. Sparse conformal prediction for dissimilarity data by Frank-Michael Schleif, Xibin Zhu and Barbara Hammer (2015)
41. Effective utilization of data in inductive conformal prediction using ensembles of neural networks by Tuve Löfström, Ulf Johansson and Henrik Boström (2013)
42. Beyond the Basic Conformal Prediction Framework by Vladimir Vovk (2014)
43. An electronic nose-based assistive diagnostic prototype for lung cancer detection with conformal prediction by Xianghao Zhan, Zhan Wang, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo, You Wang, Guang Li (Stanford, Royal Holloway, China University of Mining and Technology, 2020)
44. Predicting with confidence: Using conformal prediction in drug discovery by Jonathan Alvarsson, Staffan Arvidsson McShane, Ulf Norinder, Ola Spjuth (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
45. Inductive conformal prediction for silent speech recognition by Ming Zhang, You Wang, Zhang Wei, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo, Guang Li (2020)
46. Large scale comparison of QSAR and conformal prediction methods and their applications in drug discovery by Nicolas Bosc, Francis Atkinson, Eloy Felix, Anna Gaulton, Anne Hersey and Andrew R. Leach (2019)
47. Deep Conformal Prediction for Robust Models by Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau and Sébastien Destercke (2020)
48. Strong validity, consonance, and conformal prediction by Leonardo Cella and Ryan Martin (2020)
49. Skin Doctor CP: Conformal Prediction of the Skin Sensitization Potential of Small Organic Molecules by Anke Wilm, U. Norinder, M. Agea, Christina de Bruyn Kops, Conrad Stork, J. Kühnl, J. Kirchmair (2020)
50. Conformal prediction based active learning by linear regression optimization by Sergio Matiz, Kenneth E.Barner (2020)
51. Conformal prediction intervals for the individual treatment effect by Danijel Kivaranovic, Robin Ristl, Martin Poschb, Hannes Leeb (2020)
52. Nearest neighbor based conformal prediction by László Györfi and Harro Walk (2020)
53. Concepts and Applications of Conformal Prediction in Computational Drug Discovery by Isidro Cortés-Ciriano and Andreas Bender (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
54. Predicting Ames Mutagenicity Using Conformal Prediction in the Ames/QSAR International Challenge Project by Ulf Norinder, Ernst Ahlberg, Lars Carlsson (2018)
55. Nested Conformal Prediction and the Generalized Jackknife by Arun Kuchibhotla and Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2019)
56. Predictive inference with the jackknife+ by Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel Candès, Aaditya Ramdas, and Ryan Tibshirani (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
57. A Distribution-Free Test of Covariate Shift Using Conformal Prediction by Xiaoyu Hu and Jing Lei (Peking Univerity, China and Carnegie Mellon, USA, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
58. Exchangeability, Conformal Prediction, and Rank Tests by Arun Kuchibhotla (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
59. Conformal prediction with localization by Leying Guan (2020)
60. Multitask Modeling with Confidence Using Matrix Factorization and Conformal Prediction by Ulf Norinder, Fredrik Svensson
61. Conformal prediction of HDAC inhibitors by U. Norinder, J.J.Navaka, E. Lopez-Lopez, D. Mucs & J.L. Medina-Franco (2019)
62. Computing Full Conformal Prediction Set with Approximate Homotopy by Eugene Ndiaye, Ichiro Takeuchi (2019)
63. Conformal Prediction Based on Raman Spectra for the Classification of Chinese Liquors by Jiao Gu, Huaibo Liu, Chaoqun Ma, Lei Li, Chun Zhu, Christ Glorieux, Guoqing Chen (2019)
64. Efficient and minimal length parametric conformal prediction regions by Daniel Eck and Forrest Crawford (2019)
65. Conformal Prediction for Students' Grades in a Course Recommender System by Raphael Morsomme and Evgueni Smirnov (2019)
66. Efficient iterative virtual screening with Apache Spark and conformal prediction by Laeeq Ahmed, Valentin Georgiev, Marco Capuccini, Salman Toor, Wesley Schaal, Erwin Laure and Ola Spjuth (2018)
67. Predicting Off-Target Binding Profiles With Confidence Using Conformal Prediction by Samuel Lampa, Jonathan Alvarsson, Staffan Arvidsson Mc Shane, Arvid Berg, Ernst Ahlberg, Ola Spjuth (2018)
68. Maximizing gain in high-throughput screening using conformal prediction by Fredrik Svensson, Avid M. Afzal1, Ulf Norinder and Andreas Bender (2018)
69. Conformalized Survival Analysis by Emmanuel Candès, Lihua Lei and Zhimei Ren (2021) R-Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
70. Random Forest Prediction Intervals by Haozhe Zhang†, Joshua Zimmerman†, Dan Nettleton† and Daniel J. Nordman† (Iowa State University, USA, 2019)
71. Conformal Training: Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers | DeepMind by David Stutz (DeepMind), Krishnamurthy Dvijotham, Ali Taylan Cemgil and Arnaud Doucet (2021)
72. Comparing the Bayes and typicalness frameworks by Thomas Melluish, Craig Saunders, Ilia Nouretdinov, and Volodya Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2001). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
73. Large-scale probabilistic predictors with and without guarantees of validity by Vladimir Vovk, Ivan Petej, and Valentina Fedorova (Royal Holloway, Yandex, NeurIPS) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
74. Inductive conformal prediction for silent speech recognition by Ming Zhang, You Wang, Wei Zhang, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo and Guang Li (2020)
75. Valid prediction intervals for regression problems by Nicolas Dewolf, Bernard De Baets, Willem Waegeman (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
76. Application of conformal prediction interval estimations to market makers’ net positions by Wojciech Wisniewski, David Lindsay, Sian Lindsay (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
77. Locally Valid and Discriminative Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning Models by Zhen Lin, Shubhendu Trivedi, Jimeng Sun (NeurIPS, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
78. Distribution-Free Federated Learning with Conformal Predictions by Charles Lu and Jayashree Kalpathy-Cramer (2022)
79. Coreset-based Conformal Prediction for Large-scale Learning by Nery Riquelme-Granada, Khuong Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019)
80. Fast probabilistic prediction for kernel SVM via enclosing balls by Nery Riquelme-Granada, Khuong Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
81. Conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection in time-series data by Evgeny Burnaev, Vladislav Ishimtsev (2016)
82. Predictive Inference with Weak Supervision by Maxime Cauchois, Suyash Gupta, Alnur Ali and John Duchi (Stanford, 2022)
83. Conformal Prediction in Clinical Medical Sciences by Janette Vazquez and Julio C. Facelli University of Utah, 2022)
84. Provably Improving Expert Predictions with Conformal Prediction by Eleni Straitouri, Lequng Wang, Nastaran Okati and Manuel Gomez Rodriguez (Max Planck Institute for Software Systems / Cornell University, 2021).
85. Cover your cough: detection of respiratory events with confidence using a smartwatch by Khuong An Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, 2019).
86. Predicting Amazon customer reviews with deep confidence using deep learning and conformal prediction by Ulf Norinder and Petra Norinder (2022)
87. Conformal Prediction for the Design Problem by Clara Fannjianga, Stephen Batesa, Anastasios Angelopoulosa, Jennifer Listgartena and Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
88. Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imaging by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Amit Kohli, Stephen Bates, Michael I. Jordan, Jitendra Malik, Thayer Alshaabi, Srigokul Upadhyayula, Yaniv Romano (Berkeley and Technion, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
89. Conformal predictive decision making by Vladimir Vovk and Claus Bendtsen (2018).
90. The Lifecycle of a Statistical Model: Model Failure Detection, Identification, and Refitting by Alnur Ali1, Maxime Cauchois and John C. Duchi (Stanford, 2022)
91. E-values: Calibration, combination, and applications by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway) and Ruodu Wang (University of Waterloo) (2019)
92. Conformal Prediction Sets with Limited False Positives by Adam Fisch, Tal Schuster, Tommi Jaakkola and Regina Barzilay code (MIT / Google Research, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
93. Ensemble Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting by Vilde Jensen, Filippo Maria Bianchi, Stian Norman Anfinsen (Arctic University of Norway, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Python Code
94. Prediction of Metabolic Transformations using Cross Venn-ABERS Predictors by Staffan Arvidsson, Ola Spjuth, Lars Carlsson and Paolo Toccaceli (University of Uppsala, Astra Zeneca, Royal Holloway, 2017)
95. Probabilistic Prediction in scikit-learn by Sweidan, Dirar and Ulf Johansson. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
96. Conformalized Online Learning: Online Calibration Without a Holdout Set by Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates and Yaniv Romano (2022). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
97. Valid model-free spatial prediction by Huiying Mao, Ryan Martin and Brian J Reich (2020)
98. Conformal Prediction with Temporal Quantile Adjustments by Zhen Lin, Shubhendu Trivedi, Jimeng Sun (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
99. Calibration of Natural Language Understanding Models with Venn–ABERS Predictors by Patrizio Giovannotti (Royal Holloway, UK, 2022) NLP
100. Conformal prediction interval for dynamic time-series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
101. Conformal prediction set for time-series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
102. Conformal Time-Series Forecasting by Kamile Stankeviciu te and Ahmed M. Alaa (2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
103. Efficient Conformal Prediction via cascaded inference with expanded admission by Adam Fisch, Tal Schuster, Tommi Jaakkola, Regina Barzilay (MIT 2021]. Python Code
104. Split Localized Conformal Prediction by Xing Han, Ziyang Tang, Joydeep Ghosh, Qiang Liu (University of Texas, 2022). Python Code
105. Three Applications of Conformal Prediction for Rating Breast Density in Mammography by Charles Lu, Ken Chang, Praveer Singh, Jayashree Kalpathy-Crame (2022)
106. Conformal prediction set for time-series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) Python Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
107. Recommendation systems with distribution-free reliability guarantees) by Anastasious Angelopolous, Karl Krauth, Stephen Bates, Yixin Wang and Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley 2022)
108. Model Agnostic Conformal Hyperparameter Optimization by Riccardo Doyle (Spotify, 2022)
109. Improving Trustworthiness of AI Disease Severity Rating in Medical Imaging with Ordinal Conformal Prediction Sets by Charles Lu, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stuart Pomerantz (2022) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
110. Conformal Off-Policy Prediction in Contextual Bandits by Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq, Jean-François Ton, Rob Cornish, Yee Whye Teh, Arnaud Doucet (Oxford, 2022) Video presentation
111. Semantic uncertainty intervals for disentangled latent space by Swami Sankaranarayanan, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano, and Phillip Isola (Unversity of Berkeley, Technion, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
112. CODiT: Conformal Out-of-Distribution Detection in Time- Series Data by Ramneet Kaur et.al., Unibersity of Pensylvania (2022). Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
113. Confident Adaptive Language Modeling by Tal Schuster, Adam Fisch, Jai Gupta, Mostafa Dehghani, Dara Bahri, Vinh Q. Tran, Yi Tay, Donald Metzler (Google, MIT, 2022j
114. Probabilistic Conformal Prediction Using Conditional Random Samples by Zhendong Wang, Ruijiang Gao, Mingzhang Yin, Mingyuan Zhou, David M. Blei (Columbia University, 2020) Code
115. A general framework for multi-step ahead adaptive conformal heteroscedastic time series forecasting by Martim Sousa, Ana Maria Tome and Jose Moreira (University of Aveiro, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
116. A novel Deep Learning approach for one-step Conformal Prediction approximation by Julia A. Meister, Khuong An Nguyen, Stelios Kapetanakis and Zhiyuan Luo (University of Brighton, UK, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
117. Conformal Risk Control by Anastasious Angelopolous, Stephen Bates, Adam Fisch, Lihua Lei and Tal Schuster (Berkeley, Stanford, MIT and Google Research, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
118. CD-split and HPD-split: Efficient Conformal Regions in High Dimensions by Rafael Izbicki, Gilson Shimizu, Rafael B. Stern (San Carlos University Brazil, 2022) R code
119. Flexible distribution-free conditional predictive bands using density estimators by Rafael Izbicki, Gilson Shimizu, and Rafael B. Stern (San Carlos University Brazil, 2020)
120. Split Conformal Prediction for Dependent Data by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos, João Vitor Romano (IMPA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2022)
121. Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shifts by Isaac Gibbs and Emmanual Candes (Stanford, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
122. A General Framework For Multi-step Ahead Adaptive Conformal Heteroscedastic Time Series Forecasting by Martim Sousa, Ana Maria Tomé, University of Aveiro (2022) Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
123. Cough-based COVID-19 detection with audio quality clustering and confidence measure based learning by Alice E. Ashby, Julia A. Meister, Khuong An Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo, Werner Gentzk (University of Brighton, 2022)
124. Assessing Explanation Quality by Venn Prediction by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Bostroem and Ulf Johansson (2022)
125. Conformal prediction for hypersonic flight vehicle classification by Zepu Xi, Xuebin Zhuang, Hongbo Chen (Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China, 2022) Slides
126. Robust Gas Demand Forecasting With Conformal Prediction by Mouhcine Mendil, Luca Mossina, Marc Nabhan, Kevin Pasini (2022)
127. Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets by Christopher Kath and Florian Ziel (2020)
128. Conformal Prediciton beyond exchangeability by Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel J. Candes, Aaditya Ramdas, Ryan J. Tibshirani (2022)
129. Robust Gas Demand Forecasting with Conformal Prediction by Mouhcine Mendil, Luca Mossina, Marc Nabhan, Kevin Pasini (2022)
130. Split conformal prediction for dependant data by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos and João Vitor Romano (2022)
131. Conformal prediction of small-molecule drug resistance in cancer cell lines by Saiveth Hernandez-Hernandez, Sachin Vishwakarma and Pedro Ballester (2022)
132. Ellipsoidal conformal inference for Multi-Target Regression by Soundouss Messoudi, Sebastien Destercke, Sylvain Rousseau (2022) Slides
133. Conformal Methods for Quantifying Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Data: A Survey by Sophia Sun (UCLA, 2022)
134. Deep Learning With Conformal Prediction for Hierarchical Analysis of Large-Scale Whole-Slide Tissue Images by Håkan Wieslander , Philip J. Harrison, Gabriel Skogberg, Sonya Jackson, Markus Fridén, Johan Karlsson, Ola Spjuth, and Carolina Wählby (2021)
135. Audio–visual domain adaptation using conditional semi-supervised Generative Adversarial Networks by Christos Athanasiadis, Enrique Hortal, Stylianos Asteriadis (2022)
136. Conformal Prediction is Robust to Label Noise by Bat-Sheva Einbinder, Stephen Bates, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Asaf Gendler, Yaniv Romano (2022)
137. Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
138. Batch Multivalid Conformal Prediction by Christopher Jung, Georgy Noarov, Ramya Ramalingam, Aaron Roth (Stanford, university of Pensylvania, 2022)
139. Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-values by Ying Jin1 and Emmanuel J. Candes, (Stanford, 2022) Video code
140. Few-Shot Calibration of Set Predictors via Meta-Learned Cross-Validation-Based Conformal Prediction by Sangwoo Park, Kfir M. Cohen, Osvaldo Simeone (2022)
141. Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regression by Meichen Liu, Lei Ding, Dengdeng Yu, Wulong Liu, Linglong Kong, Bei Jiang (University of Alberta, Noah Arc Huawei, 2022)
142. Test-time recalibration of conformal predictors under distribution shift based on unlabeled examples by Fatih Furkan Yilmaz, and Reinhard Heckel (Rice University / University of Munuch, 2022)
143. Extending Conformal Prediction to Hidden Markov Models with Exact Validity via de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains by Buddhika Nettasinghe, Samrat Chatterjee, Ramakrishna Tipireddy, Mahantesh Halappanavar (2022)
144. Predictive inference with feature conformal prediction by Jiaye Teng, Chuan Wen, Dinghuai Zhang, Yoshua Bengio, Yang Gao, Yang Yuan (Tsinghua University, Mila - Quebec AI Institute, Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai Qi Zhi Institute, 2022) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
145. Constructing Prediction Intervals with Neural Networks: An Empirical Evaluation of Bootstrapping and Conformal Inference Methods by Alex Contarino, Christine Schubert Kabban, Chancellor Johnstone and Fairul Mohd-Zaid (2022)
146. Spatio-Temporal Wildfire Prediction using Multi-Modal Data by Chen Xu1, Yao Xie, Daniel A. Zuniga Vazquez, Rui Yao, and Feng Qiu (2022)
147. Calibrating AI models for few-shot demodulation via conformal prediction Kfir M. Cohen1, Sangwoo Park, Osvaldo Simeone, Shlomo Shamai (2022)
148. Test-time recalibration of conformal predictors under distribution shift based on unlabeled examples Code
149. Nonparametric Quantile Regression: Non-Crossing Constraints and Conformal Prediction by Wenlu Tang, Guohao Shen, Yuanyuan Lin and Jian Huang (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 2022)
150. Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Prediction by Lars Lindemann, Matthew Cleaveland∗, Gihyun Shim, and George J. Pappas (University of Pensylvania, 2022)
151. Conformal prediction under feedback covariate shift for biomolecular design by Clara Fannjiang, Stephen Bates, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos,and Michael I. Jordan (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
152. Conformal Predictor for Improving Zero-shot Text Classification Efficiency by Prafulla Kumar Choubey, Yu Bai, Chien-Sheng Wu, Wenhao Liu, Nazneen Rajani (Saleforce AI Research and Hugging Face, 2022)
153. Bayesian Optimization with Conformal Coverage Guarantees by Samuel Stanton, Wesley Maddox and Andrew Gordon Wilson (Genentech, New York University, 2022) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
154. Measuring the Confidence of Traffic Forecasting Models: Techniques, Experimental Comparison and Guidelines towards Their Actionability by Ibai Lanaa, Ignacio (In ̃aki) Olabarrietaa, Javier Del Sera (2022)
155. Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regression by Meichen Liu, Lei Ding, Dengdeng Yu, Wulong Liu, Linglong Kong, Bei Jiang (University of Alberta, Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab Canada, NeurIPS 2022 paper) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
156. Engineering Uncertainty Representations to Monitor Distribution Shifts by Thomas Bonnier and Benjamin Bosch (Société Générale, 2022)
157. CONffusion: CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR DIFFUSION MODELS ProjectCode by Eliahu Horwitz, Yedid Hoshen (Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
158. Semantic uncertainty intervals for disentangled latent spaces by Swami Sankaranarayanan, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano, Phillip Isola (MIT, Berkeley, Technion, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
159. But are you sure? An uncertainty-aware perspective on explainable AI by Charlie Marx, Youngsuk Park, Hilaf Hasson, Yuyang (Bernie) Wang, Stefano Ermon, Jun Huan (2022)
160. Calibrating AI Models for Wireless Communications via Conformal Prediction by Kfir M. Cohen, Sangwoo Park, Osvaldo Simeone and Shlomo Shamai (2022)
161. Predicting Endocrine Disruption Using Conformal Prediction – A Prioritization Strategy to Identify Hazardous Chemicals with Confidence by Maria Sapounidou, Ulf Norinder and Patrick Andersson (2022)
162. Conformal Loss-Controlling Prediction by Di Wang, Ping Wang, Zhong Ji, Xiaojun Yang, Hongyue Li (2023)
163. ROBUST AND SCALABLE UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION WITH CONFORMAL PREDICTION FOR MACHINE-LEARNED INTERATOMIC POTENTIALS Code by Yuge Hu, Joseph Musielewicz, Zachary Ulissi, Andrew J. Medford (Georgia Institute of Technology/Carnegie Mellon University, 2022)
164. Clustering of Trajectories using Non-Parametric Conformal DBSCAN Algorithm by Haotian Wang, Jie Gao, Min-ge Xie Rutgers University, 2022)
165. But Are You Sure? An Uncertainty-Aware Perspective on Explainable AI by Charlie Marx, Youngsuk Park, Hilaf Hasson, Yuyang Wang, Stefano Ermon, Jun Huan (2022)
166. Prediction-Powered Inference by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Clara Fannjiang, Michael I. Jordan, Tijana Zrnic (Universify of Berkeley, 2022) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
167. Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy Detection of Railway Signals by Leo Andeol, Thomas Fel, Florence de Grancey, Luca Mossina (Institute de Mathematiques de Toulouse, SCNF, 2022)
168. PAC Prediction Sets for Large Language Models of Code by Adam Khakhar, Stephen Mell, Osbert Bastani (University of Pennsylvania, 2023)
169. Physics Constrained Motion Prediction with Uncertainty Quantification by Renukanandan Tumu, Lars Lindemann†, Truong Nghiem, Rahul Mangharam, (2023)
170. Accelerating difficulty estimation for conformal regression forests by Henrik Bostroem, Henrik Linusson, Tuve Loefstroem, Ulf Johansson (2017)
171. Conformal prediction for exponential families and generalized linear models
172. How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Control by Jacopo Teneggi, Matt Tivnan, J Webster Stayman, Jeremias Sulam (John Hopkins University, 2023) Code
173. Localized Conformal Prediction: A Generalized Inference Framework to Conformal Prediction Code R package
174. From Group-Differences to Single-Subject Probability: Conformal Prediction-based Uncertainty Estimation for Brain-Age Modeling by Ernsting et.al. (2023)
175. Conformal prediction for STL runtime verification by Lars Lindemann, Xin Qin, Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh, George J. Pappas (University of Pennsylvania/University of Southern California, 2022)
176. Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Motion Planning among Dynamic Agents by Anushri Dixit, Lars Lindemann, Skylar Wei, Matthew Cleaveland, George J Pappas, Joel W Burdick (California Institute of Technology/University of Pennsylvania, 2022)
177. Risk Control for Online Learning Models by Shai Feldman, Liran Ringel, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano (2023)
178. Sensititivty analysis of individual treatment effects: A robust conformal inference approach Code by Ying Jin, Zhimei Ren and Emmanual Candes (2023)
179. Improving Adaptive Conformal Prediction Using Self-Supervised Learning by Nabeel Seedat, Alan Jeffares, Fergus Imrie and Mihaela van der Schaar (Cambridge, 2023) Video Code
180. [Learning by Transduction - of the of earliest conformal prediction papers] (https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2074094.2074112#sec-comments) by Alex Gammerman, Vladimir Vovk and Vladimir Vapnik (Royal Holloway, University of London, 1998) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 video
181. Hedging Predictions in Machine Learning by Alexander Gammerman and Vladimir Vovk (2008) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
182. Predicting Aromatic Amine Mutagenicity with Confidence: A Case Study Using Conformal Prediction by Ulf Norinder, Glenn Myatt and Ernst Ahlberg
183. Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learning by Aadyot Bhatnagar, Huan Wang, Caiming Xiong, Yu Bai (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
184. Fortuna: A Library for Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning by Gianluca Detommaso, Alberto Gasparin, Michele Donini, Matthias Seeger, Andrew Gordon Wilson, Cedric Archambeau (2023)
185. Intervening With Confidence: Conformal Prescriptive Monitoring of Business Processes by Mahmoud Shoush and Marlon Dumas (University of Tartu,2022)
186. Machine-Learning Applications of Algorithmic Randomness by Vladimir Vovk, Alex Gammerman and Craig Saunders (1999) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
187. On the universal distribution of the coverage in split conformal prediction by Paulo C. Marques F. (2023)
188. Lightweight, Uncertainty-Aware Conformalized Visual Odometry by Alex C. Stutts, Danilo Erricolo, Theja Tulabandhula, and Amit Ranjan Trivedi (University of Illinois Chicago, 2023)
189. Group conditional validity via multi-group learning by Samuel Deng, Navid Ardeshir, Daniel Hsu (Columbia University, 2023)
190. Improving Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Classifiers via Neighborhood Conformal Prediction: Novel Algorithm and Theoretical Analysis by Subhankar Ghosh, Taha Belkhouj, Yan Yan, Janardhan Rao Doppa (Washington State University, 2023)
191. Mondrian conformal regressors by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson (2020)
192. Mondrian Conformal Predictive Distributions by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
193. Adaptive Conformal Prediction by Reweighting Nonconformity Score by Salim I. Amoukou, Nicolas J.B Brunel (2023) Code
194. Object Pose Estimation with Statistical Guarantees: Conformal Keypoint Detection and Geometric Uncertainty Propagation by Heng Yang and Marco Pavone (NVIDIA, 2023)
195. A Two-Sample Conditional Distribution Test Using Conformal Prediction and Weighted Rank Sum by Xiaoyu Hu and Jing Lei (Peking University and Carnegie Mellon University, 2023)
196. Conformalized Semi-Supervised Random Forest For Classification and Abnormality Detection (2023)
197. How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Control Jacopo Teneggi, Matt Tivnan, J Webster Stayman, Jeremias Sulam (John Hopkins University, 2023)
198. Safe Perception-Based Control under Stochastic Sensor Uncertainty using Conformal Prediction by Shuo Yang, George J. Pappas, Rahul Mangharam, and Lars Lindemann (University of Pennsylvania, 2023)
199. Conformal Prediction Regions for Time Series using Linear Complementarity Programming by Matthew Cleaveland, Insup Lee, George J. Pappas†, and Lars Lindemann (University of Pennsylvania, 2023)
200. Development and Evaluation of Conformal Prediction Methods for QSAR by Yuting Xua, Andy Liawa, Robert P. Sheridan (Merck, 2023)
201. Multi-Agent Reachability Calibration with Conformal Prediction by Anish Muthali1, Haotian Shen, Sampada Deglurkar, Michael H. Lim, Rebecca Roelofs, Aleksandra Faust, Claire Tomlin (University of Berkeley, 2023)
202. Conformalized Unconditional Quantile Regression by Ahmed M. Alaa, Zeshan Hussain, David Sontag (Berkeley/MIT, 2023).
203. Conformal Off-Policy Evaluation in Markov Decision Processes by Daniele Foffano, Alessio Russo and Alexandre Proutiere (KTH, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
204. Quantum Conformal Prediction for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Quantum Machine Learning by Sangwoo Park and Osvaldo Simeone (2023) Code QuantumML 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
205. Probabilistic prediction with locally weighted jackknife predictive system by Di Wang, Ping Wang, Pingping Wang, Cong Wang, Zhen He, Wei Zhang 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
206. Post-selection Inference for Conformal Prediction: Trading off Coverage for Precision by Siddhaarth Sarkar, Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla (2023)
207. Conformal Regression in Calorie Prediction for Team Jumbo-Visma by Kristian van Kuijk, Mark Dirksen, Christof Seiler (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥slides
208. Design-based conformal prediction by Jerzy Wieczorek (2023) code 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
209. Inductive Confidence Machines for Regression by Harris Papadopoulos, Kostas Proedrou, Volodya Vovk, and Alex Gammerman (2002) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
210. Model-Agnostic Nonconformity Functionsfor Conformal Classification by Ulf Johansson, Henrik Linusson, Tuve Löfström, Henrik Boström (2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
211. Impact of model-agnostic nonconformity functions on efficiency of conformal classifiers: an extensive study by Marharyta Aleksandrova, Oleg Chertov (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
212. Inductive Conformal Prediciton: A Straightforward Introduction with examples in Python by Martim Sousa (2022) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
213. Closing the Loop on Runtime Monitors with Fallback-Safe MPC by Rohan Sinha, Edward Schmerling, and Marco Pavone (Standord, 2023)
214. Calibrated Explanations: with Uncertainty Information and Counterfactuals by Helena Löfström, Tuwe Löfström, Ulf Johansson, Cecilia S ̈onstr ̈od (2023) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
215. Optimizing Hyperparameters with Conformal Quantile Regression by David Salinas, Jacek Golebiowski, Aaron Klein, Matthias Seeger, Cedric Archambeau (Amazon Science, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
216. Rapid Traversal of Ultralarge Chemical Space using Machine Learning Guided Docking Screens by Andreas Luttens, Israel Cabeza de Vaca, Leonard Sparring, Ulf Norinder, Jens Carlsson (2023) Code Datasets 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
217. Predicting skin sensitizers with confidence — Using conformal prediction to determine applicability domain of GARD by Andy Forreryd, Ulf Norinder, Tim Lindberg, Malin Lindstedt (2018) 📚📚📚📚📚
218. Confidence-based Prediction of Antibiotic Resistance at the Patient-level Using Transformers by J.S. Inda-Diaz, A. Johnning, M. Hessel, A. Sjo ̈berg, A. Lokrantz, L. Hellda, M. Jirstrand, L. Svensson and E. Kristiansson (Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg/Centre for Antibiotic Resistance Research (CARe), 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
219. Framework based on conformal predictors and power martingales for detection of fixed football matches by I. Zhuk, O. Chertov (2023)
220. Principal Uncertainty Quantification with Spatial Correlation for Image Restoration Problems by Omer Belhasin, Yaniv Romano, Daniel Freedman, Ehud Rivlin, Michael Elad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
221. Conformalized matrix completion by Yu Gui, Rina Foygel Barber, and Cong Ma (University of Chicago, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
222. Conformal Prediction With Conditional Guarantees by Isaac Gibbs, John Cherian, Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2023) code
223. Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networks by Kexin Huang, Ying Jin, Emmanuel Candes, Jure Leskovec (Stanford, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
224. Federated Conformal Predictors for Distributed Uncertainty Quantification by Charles Lu, Yaodong Yu, Sai Praneeth Karimireddy, Michael I. Jordan, Ramesh Raskar (MIT/Berkeley, 2023) code video 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
225. Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering by Bhawesh Kumar, Charlie Lu, Gauri Gupta, Anil Palepu, David Bellamy, Ramesh Raskar, Andrew Beam (Harvard/MIT, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
226. Conformal Predictive Distribution Trees by Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström, Henrik Boström (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
227. CONFORMAL PREDICTION WITH PARTIALLY LABELED DATA by Alireza Javanmardi, Yusuf Sale, Paul Hofman, Eyke Hüllermeier (2023)
228. Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shift by Vincent Plassie, Mehdi Makni, Aleksandr Rubashevskii, Eric Moulines, Maxim Panov (2023)
229. Conformalizing Machine Translation Evaluation by Chrysoula Zerva, André F. T. Martins (2023)
230. Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction With Many Classes by Tiffany Ding, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Michael I. Jordan, Ryan J. Tibshirani 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (Berkeley, 2023)
231. Conformal Prediction Sets for Graph Neural Networks by Soroush Zargarbashi, Simone Antonelli, Aleksandar Bojchevski Code
232. Conformal link prediction to control the error rate by Ariane Marandon (2023)
233. JAWS-X: Addressing Efficiency Bottlenecks of Conformal Prediction Under Standard and Feedback Covariate Shift Drew Prinster, Suchi Saria, Anqi Liu (John Hopkins University, 2023) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
234. Bayesian Optimization with Formal Safety Guarantees via Online Conformal Prediction by Yunchuan Zhang, Sangwoo Park and Osvaldo Simeone (2023)
235. Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Planners by Allen Z. Ren, Anushri Dixit, Alexandra Bodrova, Sumeet Singh, Stephen Tu, Noah Brown, Peng Xu, Leila Takayama, Fei Xia, Jake Varley, Zhenjia Xu, Dorsa Sadigh, Andy Zeng, Anirudha Majumdar (Princeton/DeepMind, 2023) Website 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
236. Large scale comparison of QSAR and conformal prediction methods and their applications in drug discovery by Nicolas Bosc, Francis Atkinson, Eloy Felix, Anna Gaulton, Anne Hersey and Andrew R. Leach (Cambridge, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
237. Efficiency Comparison of Unstable Transductive and Inductive Conformal Classifiers by Henrik Linusson, Ulf Johansson, Henrik Bostroem, and Tuve Loefstroem (2014)
238. How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Control Code (John Hopkins University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
239. Conformal Test Martingale-Based Change-Point Detection for Geospatial Object Detectors by Gang Wang, Zhiying Lu, Ping Wang, Shuo Zhuang and Di Wang (2023)
240. Plug-in martingales for testing exchangeability on-line by Valentina Fedorova, Alex Gammerman, Ilia Nouretdinov, Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, ICML 2012) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
241. Testing Exchangeability On-Line by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, ICML 2003) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
242. Predictive Inference Is Free with the Jackknife+-after-Bootstrap by Byol Kim, Chen Xu, Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
243. Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering by Bhawesh Kumar, Charles Lu, Gauri Gupta, Anil Palepu, David Bellamy, Ramesh Raskar, Andrew Beam (MIT, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
244. CONFORMAL PREDICTIONS ENHANCED EXPERT-GUIDED MESHING WITH GRAPH NEURAL NETWORKS code by Amin Heyrani Nobari, Justin Rey, Suhas Kodali and Matthew Jones (MIT, 2023) website 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
245. Approximating Full Conformal Prediction at Scale via Influence Functions by Javier Abad, Umang Bhatt, Adrian Weller, Giovanni Cherubin (Cambridge, Alan Turing Institute, ETH, Microsoft Research, 2023) code video 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
246. Robust Uncertainty Quantification using Conformalised Monte Carlo Prediction Code by Daniel Bethell, Simos Gerasimou, Radu Calinescu (University of York, 2023) article code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
247. I do not know! but why?”– Local Model-Agnostic Example-based explanations of reject code by Andre Artelt, Roel Visser and Barbara Hammer (University of Bielefeld, 2023)
248. Approximating Score-based Explanation Techniques Using Conformal Regression by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Bostroem, Sofiane Ennadir and Ulf Johansson (KTH/Joenkoeping University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
249. Quantile Risk Control: A Flexible Framework for Bounding the Probability of High-Loss Predictions by Jake C. Snell, Thomas P. Zollo, Zhun Deng, Toniann Pitassi, Richard Zemel (Princeton University, Columbia University, Harvard University, University of Toronto, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
250. Improving Deep Learning-Based Defect Classification in Solar Cells using Conformal Prediction by Vitus Bødker Thomsen, Claire Mantel, Gisele Benatto, Søren Forchhammer (DTU - Technical University of De